tauresratoutput of running the code
FC_LocalSimple(x_z,'mean',1)in hctsa. It computes:
tau_resid, and for the original time series,
stderroutput from running the code
FC_LocalSimple(x_z,'mean',3)in hctsa. It returns the a measure of error from using the mean of the previous 3 values of the time series to predict the next value. The error statistic used here is the standard deviation of the residuals from the full set of simple 1-step forecasts. Because the input time series is z-scored (standard deviation of 1), the residuals should have a standard deviation less than 1 if this forecasting method is doing something (at least minimally) useful.